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Januaix 3P, 1897.
Record and Guide
i6s:
ESTABUSHED â– ©/ MJ^RpHSLii.^ IS68.
Dev6ieD P ReJ^L EsTAJE . BuiLOIjfe Aflpff tTEerURE ,^{0USEy01I^ DEGffl^UlOll
Bi/so/ess Afto Themes of GEjtoi^L Wtej^si.;
RICE, PER YEAR, IN ADVANCf", SIX DOLLARS.
Published every Saturday,
Tblbphoke, --.... Coktlandt 1370
Commnnloaliona abould be addreaeed to
C. W. SWEET. 14-16 Vesey Street
J T, LINDSEY. Busi7icss Manager.
"Entered al tlie Post-office at New Yorlt, N. I., as seconO-elass mailer."
Vol. LIX.
JANUARY 30, 1897.
No. 1,507
WARNING.
We are informed thai certain iiuUuidnals arc going about rejyre-
senting thai the liECOiiu and Guide intends io issue some sort of
a railway guide or cover to be placed in hotels, sicamshi2)s antl
elsewhere. Home persons have been induced through the use of the
â– name of the Kecord and Guide, not only to spend money with
these parties and pay in advance for their order bat to settle for
old aecoants with them. We warn ihe public thai the Kecord and
Guide is in no way whatsoever connected with this project, and
that no accounts should be paid except to our rcguUir collectors.
For mutual protection, our friends should rmmcdiately telephone
us, ]^^o. 1370 Cortlandt, wheiiapproaclied by the swindlers.
NATUIIALLY the selection of Lyman J. Gage tor the
Treasury portfolio liad a stimulatiiiy: etf'ect iu tiuaLciiil
circles, beciiiise this appoiiitojent «ill eecure to the council of
.the incoiiiiug Presideut that techcical buowlrdge whicli is
absolutely iudispeiiKable to it iu the pre.'*eufc euiergpuoy. It is
p hahly uot necessary now to critcise the ftuaucial s^ide of the
present administraliiju, but it may be remarked, to emphasize
tbe wisdom of the selectiou of a practical working fiuaucicr by
Mr. M-cKiulcy for his Secretary of (he Treasury, that some of
the troubles of the expiring admiuistration anise from the fart
that Mr. Carlisle's waut of techuical educittinn in financial
matiers withheld from him tbe coufiilence of that part of the
business community most attected by his acts.jHad Mr. Carlisle
earlyJQ his admiuistration refrained from a policy of hostility
to banltiog iuterests his path would have beeu much smoother
Later he learned where he had to rely in dangerous emergencies
but Mr. Gage will not have to go through this course and there
will bl- a confidence iu the Treasuiy Deijartiiitnt,to do the right
thing at the right time, which has uot been reposed iu it since a
practical financier ma:le way tor a lay theorist. Further Mr.
Gage's appointment wilt remove doubt, if any existed, of the
President elect's views regarding the gold standard and the
limit of concession that may have to be made to tbe silver party
in any measure of currency reform. Ibe tendency we have
remarked before, to look for.wartl to tbe coming spring with
cheerfuluesp, ismore patent than ever. Matters that in less con- "
tident times would seriously att'ecb values, now have very little
influence, while good news has anijile piaj'. Under sueb circum¬
stances, indicating as ihcy do an imnienst improvement in the
commercial situation, prices must inevitably advance when
related to issues that have any merit.
MOST encouraging reports of tbe condition of general busi¬
ness in Great Britain and on the Continent come to hanti,
whicli is in marked contrast to the state of affairs on the Ex¬
change, because, while the legitimate lines are quite active,
speculation is very dull indeed. Tbe existence of the former
is, however, a sure sign of the appearance of the latter in due
time. Those who are anxious about tbe influence of tbe Rus¬
sian demand for gold upon exchange will be relieved to learn
that the plan now beiug formulated for putting Russia on a
gold basis does uot contemplate doing more thau to give perma¬
nence to an arrangement already the common practice under
a permissive edict, viz., tbe cashing of bank notes in gold at
the rate of one and a half roubles for one rouble gold. The
world's production of gold in lS9t> has been estimated at about
$213,500,000, or about $17,000,000 more than in 1895. One feat¬
ure of this estimate is not without interest on this side of the
Atlantic; it is that tbe United States keeps its position at tbe
head of the gold producing countries of the world, though
Africa is a close enough second to make it by no meaos cer¬
tain that the United States will lead next year. There has
been no change in the foreign markets for money of any im¬
portance and consequently no Indication of what the next
movement will be, though lower rates have tbe probabilities
more large against them than higher rates.
Building Material Markets in 1896.
That the year 1S96 was not a prosperous one we are quite cer¬
tain will not be disputed. At the start conditions were unpromiB-
ing. President Cleveland's Venezuelan message In December was a
disturbiiig feature, as fear of a rupture of our peaceful relations
with Great Britain was somewhat general. The fact that the
Treasury gold reserve needed replenishing by another bond issue
also had an unfavorable influence. As the month advanced,
however, our foreign relations became more settled, and trade
gradually began to open up. During February the improvement
continued. The Government's bond sale was successful beyond
all anticipations and was not a disturbing feature to the money
market as it was feared it might be. Another favorable develop¬
ment was the rejection of a free silver bill by the House of Repre¬
sentatives by an overwhelming vote. In March, however, the
business depression, which did not end until after the National
election was held in November, started. Congress took up the
question of recognizing the Cuban insurgents as belligerents, and
the result was that the business world became much disturbed.
The attitude of the two great political parties on the currency
question now began to be a topic of deep interest, and when the
uncertain attitude of the Ohio Republican Convention on the sil¬
ver question became known it caused some uneasiness. Subse¬
quently the declaration of the Republican conventions of Massa¬
chusetts, New Tork and Minnesota were satisfactory and allayed
to a great extent the uneasiness produced by the Ohio State Con¬
vention, As the year advanced, depression became more pro¬
nounced: in May the political situation became a source of much
uneasiness. The silver advocates were meeting with success in the
Democratic State conventions at the West and South and .some
doubts were expressed as to whether it would be possible for the
Republican National Convention to declare positively for the
single gold standard. Another disturbing feature to business
was a resumption of the gold exports. In June a temporary
improvement in business circles followed the favorable action
of the Republican National Convention on the monetary ques¬
tion, but it was quickly offset when it became apparent that the
Democratic National Convention would be controlled by the silver
element. Although it was expected that the Democratic Na¬
tional Convention would declare for the free coinage of silver
at the ratio of IG to 1, the action taken on several other doctrines,
notably the denouncing of Federal interference in local affairs,
demanding that holders of obligations of the United States should
no longer be allowed to choose the kind of money in which they
should receive payment and the apparent intention of the party,
if successful, to reorganize the U. S. Supreme Court, caused
great uneasiness throughout the country. The gold reserve was
steadily decreasing as a result of a large export movement of
gold and withdrawals from the Treasury for the purpose of
hoarding. Subsequently, however, the action of the banks and
trust companies of New York, Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago
in placing at the disposal of the Treasury about $25,000,000 of
gold held by them, and a meeting of the foreign exchange
houses and gold shippers to devise plans for stopping the out¬
flow of gold was successful and materially relieved the financial
situation.
The depression in business circles and the general nervous
strain during the Presidential campaign of 1S96 will long be
remembered. In the building trade business was brought almost
to a standstill. Builders found that it was practically impossible
to borrow funds to continue work. As a result construction in a.
large number of cases was left half completed, with the trade
anxiously awaiting the outcome of the election, A favorable
development which tended to relieve the situation to a consider¬
able extent was an import movement of gold which started in
August. At first it was thought to be the effect of manipulation,
but later it became quite apparent that it was the result of
natural conditions, as the balance of trade was largely in our
favor, as the exports of merchandise were heavy, while imports
were small. The situation was further relieved by State elections
held in Vermont and Maine in September, as the results showed
unprecedented pluralities of the Republican or sound-money
party. Despite the fact that all indications foreshadowed the
defeat of the free-silver party, immediately preceding the election
a great stringency developed in the money market as a result
of the extreme nervousness and anxiety generally felt. Hoard¬
ing of gold was general and during the entire month of October
it commanded a slight premium. No surprise was expressed over
the election held in November. The result was as ha.d been
expected, but never in the history of the country had a more
complete change occurred in the financial situation as'that shown
by conditions existing November 2d and November 4th. On
the first-named date the desire to hoard gold was intense and the
withdrawals from the Treasury were large. Premiums as high
as one per cent were paid to foreign exchange dealers and bull¬
ion brokers. On the N. T, Stock Exchange up to 16 per cent were
paid for call loans. The contrast as shown on November 4th
was almost fabulous. The premium on gold had disappeared
and It became a drug; it was deposited in large amounts at the
banks and freely tendered at the Sub-Treasuries. Rates of inter¬
est dropped to 4 per cent on call. There was an immediate start¬
ing up of our industries; mill, factories, furnaces and mines all
over the country resumed operations. As an example , of the
improvement in the financial situation, municipal bonds, which