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September lo, 1910,
RECORD AND GUIDE
407
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a W. SWEET
Published EVerg Satardag
By THE RECORD AND GTJIDE CO.
PreBlflent, CLINTON W. SWEET Treasurer, F. W. DODGB
VIca-Prea. & Qenl. Mgr., H. W. DESMOND Secretary, F. T. MILLBR
Noa. 11 to 15 Sast 24tli Street, NefV York Cltr
(Telephone, Madlsoa Siiuare, 4430 to 4433.)
"Entered at the Post Office at New Tork, N. Y., as scoond-eiass matter."
Copyrighted. 1910, by The Record & Guide Co.
Vol. LXXXVl. SEPTEMBER 10, 1910.
No. 2211
NEW YORKERS have every reason to feel gratified by
tlie results of the census of 1910. The city has made
during the past ten years a truly extraordinary Increase in
population. During a decade, in which large and prosperous
cities like Philadelphia, St. Louis and Buffalo have increased
only about twenty per cent, in population. New Yorli has in¬
creased almost thirty-nine per cent. Even the Borough of
Manhattan, in which land prices are so high and vacant land
is becoming so scarce, has added twenty-six per cent, to the
number of its inhabitants, while the Bronx can show a larger
percentage of increase than any place of its size in the United
States. If it should maintain its existent rate of expansion
for another ten years it will have about 1,000,000 inhabi¬
tants in 1920 against only 200,000 twenty years before. In
all probability it will by 1920 duplicate the record of the
past decade, because there will be a much larger overflow
from Manhattan to be distributed among the other boroughs.
If the whole city continues to grow at its existing rate for
another ten years, it will have 6,500,000 inhabitants in 1920,
and nearly 9,000,000 in 1930. Even with the diminution
in the rate of increase which will probably take place, an
estimate of 8,000,000 as its population twenty years from
now is not unreasonable. By that time somewhere between
three-fifths and two-thirds of this total will be living in the
outer boroughs; but the inhabitants of these boroughs will
be tied to Manhattan even more closely than they are at
present. The several boroughs will be united by much better
means ot communication than those which now exist, and
Manhattan real-estate values will benefit raore than ever
from tbe growth of the whole city in population and wealth.
THE meaning and conseciuences of the figures given above
are hard to realize, but perhaps a comparison between
the New York of 1S90 and the Xew York of to-day will give
the reader some idea of what changes may take place during
the next ten or fifteen years. Since 1S90 New York has en¬
joyed an increase of a little over 2,200,000 in population. If
its existing rate of increase is continued it will gain about
1,800,000 inhabitants before 1921; and hy the end of 1922
its total increase will equal the increase that has takeu place
since 1S90, But between the years 1890 and 1910 New York
as a modern city has been made over. In 1890 the only sky¬
scrapers in the city were the early experimental buildings
erected by the Tribune and the Western Union, The hotel of
to-day was unknown, for the Waldorf was being built and
the Astoria was not added until three years later. During
these twenty years, consequently, all the modern office build¬
ings and hotels have been erected. Some few large apartment
houses had been built near the Park in 1890, hut they were
few in number and private bouses were being still erected
in considerable numbers on both the East and West Sides.
The modern twelve-story loft building was as little known
as the twenty-story office building, and at that period the
actual district for mercantile construction consisted of the
iiarrow streets of unsavory reputation immediately west of
Broadway and southeast of Washington Square. Illustrations
of this kind might be multiplied, but,enough have been given
to show that during these years, while 2,200,000 inhabitant?
were being added to New York, the city has been radicallj'
transformed. A new city has practically been built. Will
the transformation which takes place during the next twelve
years be, equally radical and far-reaching? During that in¬
terval another 2,200,000 inhabitants will be added to the
population of the city. New York will be increased hy an¬
other Manhattan or Chicago or by almost two Philadelphias.
Will the transformation which ensues be as radical and far-
reaching as it has been during the past twenty years? I*rob-
ably not, but it will involve so many unexpected and so many
startling changes that by 1925 New York will probahly be
almost as different from what it is to-day, as it now is from
what it was in 1S90. Any very different predictions as to
what will take place would be futile; but certain general
changes may be anticipated with some certainty. The hotel
and theatre district will expand with great rapidity, hut will
be conflned between Columbus Circle and Long Acre Square.
The wholesale district will be forced to bulge out laterally
and will probably extend from Fourth Ave. to the Hudson
River south of Forty-second St, Retail trade will concentrate
more and more along the line of Fifth Ave,, hut by that time
it will have taken possession of Fifth-Seventh St, The whole
appearance of the city will be dominated by a number of
towers, similar to that on the Metropolitan Building, hut
these towers will be erected only on a few favored squares
and avenues. There will be very few private dwellings left
on the West Side, and those remaining on the East Side will
have become very expensive.
VERY definite statements have been made during the
past week that Mayor Gaynor has "placed himself in
the hands of his friends," and will accept the Democratic
nomination for Governor. If the statements prove to be true,
the cause of good government in New York will have re¬
ceived a severe setback, and the Mayor will have disappointed
the expectations of the many friends he has made since his
election. In case he is nominated for Governor, he can prob¬
ably he elected; and in case he is elected, he will have an
excellent chance for the Democratic nomination for the
Presidency. It may be too ranch to demand of any man that
he should refuse to step on to a higher road that appears
to lead toward the White House; hut there can be no doubt
that the. people of New York have a peculiar claim upon the
services of their present Mayor, and that any relinquishment
by hira of his existing office would he judged by soraewhat dif¬
ferent standards than those which ordinarily apply, Mr,
Gaynor's whole public career has been identified with mu¬
nicipal rather than state or national affairs. He solicited the
suffrages of his fellow citizens on the ground that he was
passionately devoted to the cause of good government in
New York, and would make that cause his sole pre-occupa-
tion after election. He knows as well as any one else that
his work has only been begun and that the cause of good
government iu New York would be very much injured hy his
resignation. The new Mayor might prove to he an excellent
official; but the experience of the last thirty years indicates
that very few men possess the qualities necessary to make a
good Mayor, and that any change involves a risk. Not only,
however, is there a risk involved by the substitution of any
other raan for the best Mayor New York has had for an
indefinite period, but an inevitable loss will result from the
promotion of Mr, Mitchel, His successor will be elected by
the Board of Aldermen, and if that Board has allowed con¬
sideration of good governraent to affect its elections to local
offices, the instance has not yet been called to our notice.
The Board of Estimate would be surely weakened by the
Mayor's resignation, aud his action in resigning would be a
sufficient indication he was sacrificing to the dictates of per¬
sonal ambition the cause which has been proclaimed to be
the dominant interest of Mr, Gaynor's life.
UNTIL the end of the next six weelvs the controversy
which has heen raging so long over Subway routes and
contracts may well be stilled. No decision of any kind can
he taken until the hids for the construction and operation of
the Tri-Borough System are opened during the last two weeks
in October, and any decision which is subsequently taken
must depend upon the results of those hids. New York will
then know where it stands in respect to future rapid transit
construction. It will learn whether private capital will accept
the indeterminate franchise and the distribution of profits,
or whether in order to preserve these advantages to the city,
it will be necessary to depend on municipal construction. It
will learn whether the New Haven Railroad Co. is really
seeking an entrance into Manhattan through a Subway, and
whether the Broadway-Lexington Ave. route was laid out as
an essentially independent line for its benefit. It will learn
whether hereafter the city will have one Subway system with