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Real estate record and builders' guide: v. 70, no. 1814: December 20, 1902

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December 20, 1902. RECORD AND GUIDE 925 eX ESTABUSHm-i^tt.RRpHetM^ia68. JjEyijTEO p Rfj^L Estate , BuiLDijJc A^rrecruiiE .h{c5usaJciiD DEocsi^il, BUSIlfcsS AtiDTHEWESOrGEltR^ iKTZR^Ji PRICE PER YEAR HM ADVANCE, SIX DOLLARS Published eVers Soturday CommuDlcatlona should too addresaed to C. W. SWEET, 14-16 Vesey Street. New York i. T. LINDSEY, Business Manager Telephone, Cortlandt 3157 "Entered at the Fost Office at New York. JV, Y.. as second-claas matter." Vol. LXX. DECEMBER 20, 1902. No, 1814. T T may be taken for granted that the money requirements of -i- the year have now been met, and that there will be compiirative ease until the industrial and commercial demands of the spring make themselves felt. Part of this ease will eome from the re-loaning of a good deal of the money that has been borrowed on time during the recent scare, because there never was a scare yet but that some people became over-cautious or over-speculative, and took up more than they could afterwards employ. Not only is there a cessation of home demands but foreign purchases of grain, cotton, etc., are so influencing ex¬ change as to remove all danger of gold exports. It is probable, too, that the way in which we have weathered the recent little storm will revive foreign confidence in our securities and turn part of that United States debtor account, of which we have heard so much of late, to the other side of the ledger. Certainly our prospects never looked brighter than at present, in spite of the fact that we are well into our seventh year of recovery from the dreary days of silver legislation and anti-silver agitation. Confirmation of this view will be found in a succeeding para¬ graph relating to the wonderful and unprecedented way that railroad traffic is sustained. The conditions all make for fur¬ ther improvement in stock market values, provided that there is no attempt to resume speculation in the wildness of form char¬ acteristic of last spring aud the iate summer. Of the latter there Is probably little danger, because the banks have their funds well in hand, and can control the situation, but a further recovery from the depression of the past two months or ten weeks is certainly justifls-ble and in order. An attempt was made yesterday to depress prices in connection with the Venezuela negotiations, but it had not much success. As was the case earlier in the week, it was taken for granted that the inter¬ ests on the side o' an early adjustment of this difficulty by diplo¬ matic process were so prepouderately a: to make it certain. AT the same time that New York's financial prospects are clearing the Intensity of the demand for money in Europe increases, but while yesterday's cables report a jump in rates it is hardly likely that this condition oi affairs will be carried into the new year. Prices of securities do not sup¬ port any such idea. It is fortunate that speculation has been light for some time, because th?re is no doubt that an unprecedented large proportion of the funds of the banks are locked up in financing loans which could not be distributed because of the prolonged absence of th3 investor. This week there has been some buying of Consols and a continuation of the more enterprising buying noticed last week. No sooner is this movement of private capital noticed than talk is revived of the coming government loans, which reminds us that there will be little chance for cheap money until these loans have heen floated. The banks will have to hold their funds In reserve for their several governments. It is not probable that the jactual flotations will take place until spring, but the fact that much money is required cannot fail to influence the situation. Some of these loans would have been issued this fall, but for the developments that took place In the money market upon this side of the Atlantic and their influence upon the situation in the European markets. As it is, with the outlonk clearing, they cannot now be too soon produced, because certainly nothing in the way of new ventures of importance can or will be flnanced until they are disposed of. The government demands will be of very con¬ siderable proportions. From known facts it is safe to estimate those of Great Britain at from 1150,000.000 to $200,000,000; Prance will want $250,000,000 to $300,000,000 and Germany $100,000,000. Russia may be expected to come in with a large contribution, and altogether the market will easily have to sup¬ ply the various governmenta, big and little, with $1,000,000,000 during the coming year. These loans are not be dreaded under normal conditions; on the contrary they should stimulate the financial markets Into an activity now only too absent, which can be continued Into other forms of business. JUDGING from the weekly returns as they are now appear- ■^ ing. we are nearing the close of the fortieth consecutive month of increased railroad earnings; that is to say, the pres¬ ent month and the past thirty-nine months will or have shown an increase compared with the corresponding month of a pre¬ vious year. This Is certainly a remarkable and unprecendented record. The most significant fact connected with these figures is not only that railroad traffic gives no sign of falling off, hut from every direction there come complaints of a want of cars with which to do business. It is no wonder that, with state¬ ments like this appearing in the press, confidence in railroad investment securities remains unabated, although it Is long since the market afforded anything in the shape of bargains. It Is likely, too, that when the New Year buyer appears upon the scene there will be another scraping process in the endeavor to find anything that will yield a fair return upon the money avail¬ able for investment, and in this process the few new issues that offer reasonable security with a return that Is now come to be considered more than fair, say five per cent, or thereabouts, will be snapped up and their prices will advance accordingly. A still more important consideration arises from a contemplation of sustained railroad earnings, which is the promise they convey of a continuation of the pros¬ perity of the business of the country. There are signs that fore¬ tell more quickly and accurately than earnings of the railroads the beginning of a business boom; notably the prices of pig- iron or of chemicals, or some other basic ingredients of manu¬ factures, but there are none that show so well what is doing and what may be expected when once the boom is under way. Con¬ sequently when month after month railroad earnings continue to increase over the country generally we know that manufac¬ turers and agriculturists are all well employed, and there is widespread prosperity with no appearance of a diminution of activity. When railroad traffic falls off aad the decline cannot be explained by special reasons, such as obstruction of the rails by severe storms, we may know that a change Is coming. At the moment, in spite of the fact that money has been a troublesome and uncertain quantity for a period of more than two months, there is no such sign in the business horizon. ^n HERE is every likelihood that Governor Odell in his forth- -^ coming address to the Legislature will renew some of his suggestions of last year for fiscal legislature, and among them one particularly that a small tax be placed upon mortgages. This will probably lead to the re-introduction of last year's bill placing a tax of one-half of 1 per cent upon all mortgages as recorded, with an allowance of the tax in the case of permanent mortgages which take the place of the temporary ones so com¬ monly employed In the building business. It is currently re¬ ported that the chances of such a bill becoming law are more favorable this year than they were last, when to the surprise of everyone in this part of the state, the up-country opposition defeated It. At first it was thought that as the vast bulk of bor¬ rowing on mortgage is done in the big cities and the tax would be paid mainly by them, that the rural members would be only too glad to support a measure which was apparently likely to relieve their own constituents. Events proved the contrary, however, tor it turned out that many of the rural communities obtained more of their Income from personal property, of which mortgages formed the largest part, than from land, and they so influenced their representatives in the Legislature that the bill was killed. Now it is thought that the rural representatives can be brought into line to pass the pill. In our own commu¬ nity there is undoubtedlyan Increase of the public opinion favor¬ ing this or a similar measure. The question of the taxation of mortgages has, as we all know, been a vexatious one, and It la felt that a small tax would be a desirable compromise, accept¬ able even to those who have hitherto opposed the taxation of mortgages as a double tax. These pnd others who will support the bill claim that the tax, If not more than a half of 1 per cent, will be recouped by a greater marketability of mortgages and the influx of money seeking that security that now holds aloof because of Its liability to taxation as personal property. The theory Is plausible certainly. It finds support in the facts that the amount of personal property tax collected from mortgages in this city Is now surprisingly small, not more than from three to four hundred thousand dollars a year, and that the investors in mortgages are mainly Institutions or Individuals who are legally exempt from taxation. A broadening of the market never hurt a security yet, and It Is not Ukely to he different with realty mortgagee.