Columbia University Libraries Digital Collections: The Real Estate Record

Real estate record and builders' guide: v. 81, no. 2099: June 6, 1908

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June 6, igo8 RECORD AND GUIDE 1051 ESTABLISHED-^ iWPHSl'-^^ 1858. Dev&teD YO RfA,L Estaje.BuiLoij/g %:i(rrEeTUR,E.HausEKOLD DEeoriATiotI, Bi/sirfess Alto Themes or'GEjtoi^l iKittiEsi.. PRICE PER YEAR IN ADVANCE EIGHT DOLLARS Communications should be addressed to C. W- SWEET Published EVers) Saturdap By THE RECOKD AND GUIDE CO. president, CLINTON W. SWEET Treasurer, F. W, DODGE Vlce-Pres. Sc Genl. Mgr., H. W. DESMOND Secretary, F. T. MILLER Nos. XI lo 15 East 24tli Street, New York City (Telephone, Madison Square, 4430 to 443.3.) "Entered at the Post Office at New York, N. Y., as srcoiitl-elass niattrr." Copyrighted, 190S, by The Record £ Guide Co, Vol. LXXXl. JUNE 6, 1908. No. 2099. THE spring has passed and the summer has come with¬ out being witness to any substantial recovery of activity in the real estate market. The total number of conveyances recorded each week remains smaller than the small totals of last year, while the increased ease of the money market has uot availed to bring up the amount of money loaned to the level which prevailed during the stringency, of loanable capital in the spring of 1907. Real estate in and around New York is dull as it has'not been dull since 1900; but if it is dull, it is not wealr, and its continued dullness is only natural. When a business re¬ vival takes place real estate gets the benefit of it only after the movement has gained some headway. The recuperative forces making for an economic betterment are first con¬ centrated on the more fluid parts of the business area; and it is only after busiueEs men have been making, and work- ingmen have heen saving, money for a good many months that real estate becomes active and large amounts of cap¬ ital are again invested in building. Moreover, it is essen¬ tial for a wholesome recovery of the real estate market that the renewed prosperity should not be fictitious but should be the result of an actual renewal of the springs of industrial and financial energy. An increase in rea! estate values and an active building movement cannot be financed without an abundance of loanable capital, and such a fund must be accumulated as a C9Udition of any¬ thing more than a sporadic improvement. The real estate and building interests may consequently loolt with equa¬ nimity upon the prospect of a continuation of the present dullness until next winter. After the election is over there is every probability of a renewal of activity in New York real estate—provided, of course, general business has in the meantime somewhat recovered. IT is very probable that during the coming w'lnter a movement will take place in real estate similar to that which has recently been observed in stocks. The mar¬ ket for real estate in this city is almost as much under the control of professional speculators as is the stock mar¬ ket; and any real estate revival wiil begin with specu¬ lative buying in those parts of the city which seem to offer the best opportunities for profit. Like all specula¬ tive movements, this buying will begin a year or two before actual conditions may warrant it, but it is, of course, peculiarly the function of the speculator to anticipate the movement of prices, and to sell out when the course of business makes his anticipations good. There is every rea¬ son to believe, consequently, that active speculative buy¬ ing will begin during the winter and spring of 1909; and the only conditions which might prevent it would be the improbable ones of severe business depression or a tight money market. Neither can there be much doubt as to the parts of the city which will be benefited by this movement. The districts in which there is a chance for an early profit in real estate, are much restricted by the indefinite post¬ ponement of the construction of new subways. The Bronx will feel the effects of this delay most severely, but it will also have its effects upon the upper East Side of Manhat¬ tan. On the other hand, it is probable not only that there will be a renewal of activity on Washington Heights, but tbat this renewal will extend along the whole upper line of the existing subway. The Dyckman tract, after having been dormant for four years, will awaken Into renewed life, and those parte pf tlie Bronx whlcb are reached by tUe subway will continue their development. The alterations that are being made in and about the 96th street station will increase the capacity of the subway very considerably and also enable it to accommodate a considerable increase of population along its route. There can be no doubt, however, that during the next five years the bulk of the increase of New York in population will seek residences oq Long Island and New Jersey. When the tunnels now un¬ der construction are in full operation, iarge areas to the east and west of Manhattan will become comparatively much more accessible than they are at present, and it is inevitable that they should reap the benefit of tbis in¬ creased accessibility. But if Long Island and New Jersey will draw population from Manhattan and the Bronx be¬ cause of their improved means of communication, these same improvements can do nothing but good to the busi¬ ness interests of Manhattan. Distribution of population, when it is brought aboul by improved means of communica¬ tion, helps to concentrate business. Five years from now Manhattan merchants will control a larger rather than a smaller in-oportion of the gross retail business of the city, and this gain will more than offset whatever the borough may lose from the inevitable transfer of certain manufac¬ turing plants to the otber boroughs. The great specula¬ tive movement of the next few years is likely to take place in those parts of Manhattan which will reap the benefit in business from the improved means of communication with Long Island aud New Jersey. T^HE Public Service Commission should, at the earliest "^ possible opportunity, resume negotiations with the Interborough Company for the purchase of the tunnel to Long Island City. The Legislature has granted It powers sufficient for the purpose, and there cau be no doubt that its purchase is demanded by the public interests of the city. Here is a tunnel which is already built and which could be put into operation a few months after its pur¬ chase. Its operation would be a great boon to the resi¬ dents of Queens, and it could be made almost equally help¬ ful to the business interests of certain parts of Manhattan. There is no way in which a sum of money could be spent upon rapid transit that would bring more and quicker benefit in proportion to its cost to a larger number of people, and it is sincerely to be hoped , that the Public Service Commission can reach some fair arrangement with the Interborough Company. Moreover, in case such an arrangement is reached, the tunnel should be extended to some better terminal In Manhattan, if it is not prolonged any further west than it goes at present its value will be enormously diminished. Its termiual should not be any further east than Eighth avenue, and it shonl'd be connected so far as possible with the subway stations on 42d street and with the Grand Central Depot. Whether it could fol¬ low the line of 42d street at a level deeper than the exist¬ ing subway, we do not know, but if such a route could not be arranged, it should cross 41st street and be provided with underground connections with important points on 42d street. Then it would reach the heart of the theatrical and amusement district, and would benefit all the restau¬ rants and theatres situated in that vicinity. 'TAHE .spending of $7,000,000 or more upon the tunnel to -*■ Long Island City would, however, necessarily bring with it one important consequence. The city cannot afford to appropriate from its small margin of capital $7,000,000 for this tunnel and $16,000,000 or more for the Fourth ave¬ nue subway in South Brooklyn, and the Board of Estimate will undoubtedly insist upon the abandonment of either one project or the other. The project which should be abandoned is unquestionably the Fourth avenue subway. That subway has been a mistake from the beginning and should never have heen laid out, and in making this asser¬ tion the Record and Guide is not preoccupied by any spe¬ cial preference for the interest of Manhattan and Bronx -compared to the interest of Brooklyn. We have favored the construction of bridges and tunnels to Brooklyn and Queens wherever their construction can be justified by sound economic reasons—and this in spite of the fact that Manhattan real estate pays more than half the cost ot these improvements without reaping anything like half the benefit. We should be glad to see the city purchase the Belmont tunnel and construct the combined subway and elevated road, whereby it Ib proposed to connect the Flat- bush avenue station in Brooklyn with Canal street and the Bowery in Manhattan, Such expenditures can be Justifled by their fruits. But to spend ?16,000,000 or more upon a