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Real estate record and builders' guide: v. 86, no. 2217: September 10, 1910

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September lo, 1910, RECORD AND GUIDE 407 M> .BTABUSHED^ l^iWf-HSm'^ 1868. (I flirV 1A68. iJW&Tlfl TO R^EsTAjt.BuiLDIlfe *;jK^ITZCTURE.KoUSEaOLDDEt3CSi«at»> Bifsnfess AjtoTHE«ES Of GejJeiviI lKi^*T« PRICE PER YEAR IN ADVANCE EIGITt DOLLARS Cooimunlcatloas should bo addressed! t9 a W. SWEET Published EVerg Satardag By THE RECORD AND GTJIDE CO. PreBlflent, CLINTON W. SWEET Treasurer, F. W. DODGB VIca-Prea. & Qenl. Mgr., H. W. DESMOND Secretary, F. T. MILLBR Noa. 11 to 15 Sast 24tli Street, NefV York Cltr (Telephone, Madlsoa Siiuare, 4430 to 4433.) "Entered at the Post Office at New Tork, N. Y., as scoond-eiass matter." Copyrighted. 1910, by The Record & Guide Co. Vol. LXXXVl. SEPTEMBER 10, 1910. No. 2211 NEW YORKERS have every reason to feel gratified by tlie results of the census of 1910. The city has made during the past ten years a truly extraordinary Increase in population. During a decade, in which large and prosperous cities like Philadelphia, St. Louis and Buffalo have increased only about twenty per cent, in population. New Yorli has in¬ creased almost thirty-nine per cent. Even the Borough of Manhattan, in which land prices are so high and vacant land is becoming so scarce, has added twenty-six per cent, to the number of its inhabitants, while the Bronx can show a larger percentage of increase than any place of its size in the United States. If it should maintain its existent rate of expansion for another ten years it will have about 1,000,000 inhabi¬ tants in 1920 against only 200,000 twenty years before. In all probability it will by 1920 duplicate the record of the past decade, because there will be a much larger overflow from Manhattan to be distributed among the other boroughs. If the whole city continues to grow at its existing rate for another ten years, it will have 6,500,000 inhabitants in 1920, and nearly 9,000,000 in 1930. Even with the diminution in the rate of increase which will probably take place, an estimate of 8,000,000 as its population twenty years from now is not unreasonable. By that time somewhere between three-fifths and two-thirds of this total will be living in the outer boroughs; but the inhabitants of these boroughs will be tied to Manhattan even more closely than they are at present. The several boroughs will be united by much better means ot communication than those which now exist, and Manhattan real-estate values will benefit raore than ever from tbe growth of the whole city in population and wealth. THE meaning and conseciuences of the figures given above are hard to realize, but perhaps a comparison between the New York of 1S90 and the Xew York of to-day will give the reader some idea of what changes may take place during the next ten or fifteen years. Since 1S90 New York has en¬ joyed an increase of a little over 2,200,000 in population. If its existing rate of increase is continued it will gain about 1,800,000 inhabitants before 1921; and hy the end of 1922 its total increase will equal the increase that has takeu place since 1S90, But between the years 1890 and 1910 New York as a modern city has been made over. In 1890 the only sky¬ scrapers in the city were the early experimental buildings erected by the Tribune and the Western Union, The hotel of to-day was unknown, for the Waldorf was being built and the Astoria was not added until three years later. During these twenty years, consequently, all the modern office build¬ ings and hotels have been erected. Some few large apartment houses had been built near the Park in 1890, hut they were few in number and private bouses were being still erected in considerable numbers on both the East and West Sides. The modern twelve-story loft building was as little known as the twenty-story office building, and at that period the actual district for mercantile construction consisted of the iiarrow streets of unsavory reputation immediately west of Broadway and southeast of Washington Square. Illustrations of this kind might be multiplied, but,enough have been given to show that during these years, while 2,200,000 inhabitant? were being added to New York, the city has been radicallj' transformed. A new city has practically been built. Will the transformation which takes place during the next twelve years be, equally radical and far-reaching? During that in¬ terval another 2,200,000 inhabitants will be added to the population of the city. New York will be increased hy an¬ other Manhattan or Chicago or by almost two Philadelphias. Will the transformation which ensues be as radical and far- reaching as it has been during the past twenty years? I*rob- ably not, but it will involve so many unexpected and so many startling changes that by 1925 New York will probahly be almost as different from what it is to-day, as it now is from what it was in 1S90. Any very different predictions as to what will take place would be futile; but certain general changes may be anticipated with some certainty. The hotel and theatre district will expand with great rapidity, hut will be conflned between Columbus Circle and Long Acre Square. The wholesale district will be forced to bulge out laterally and will probably extend from Fourth Ave. to the Hudson River south of Forty-second St, Retail trade will concentrate more and more along the line of Fifth Ave,, hut by that time it will have taken possession of Fifth-Seventh St, The whole appearance of the city will be dominated by a number of towers, similar to that on the Metropolitan Building, hut these towers will be erected only on a few favored squares and avenues. There will be very few private dwellings left on the West Side, and those remaining on the East Side will have become very expensive. VERY definite statements have been made during the past week that Mayor Gaynor has "placed himself in the hands of his friends," and will accept the Democratic nomination for Governor. If the statements prove to be true, the cause of good government in New York will have re¬ ceived a severe setback, and the Mayor will have disappointed the expectations of the many friends he has made since his election. In case he is nominated for Governor, he can prob¬ ably he elected; and in case he is elected, he will have an excellent chance for the Democratic nomination for the Presidency. It may be too ranch to demand of any man that he should refuse to step on to a higher road that appears to lead toward the White House; hut there can be no doubt that the. people of New York have a peculiar claim upon the services of their present Mayor, and that any relinquishment by hira of his existing office would he judged by soraewhat dif¬ ferent standards than those which ordinarily apply, Mr, Gaynor's whole public career has been identified with mu¬ nicipal rather than state or national affairs. He solicited the suffrages of his fellow citizens on the ground that he was passionately devoted to the cause of good government in New York, and would make that cause his sole pre-occupa- tion after election. He knows as well as any one else that his work has only been begun and that the cause of good government iu New York would be very much injured hy his resignation. The new Mayor might prove to he an excellent official; but the experience of the last thirty years indicates that very few men possess the qualities necessary to make a good Mayor, and that any change involves a risk. Not only, however, is there a risk involved by the substitution of any other raan for the best Mayor New York has had for an indefinite period, but an inevitable loss will result from the promotion of Mr, Mitchel, His successor will be elected by the Board of Aldermen, and if that Board has allowed con¬ sideration of good governraent to affect its elections to local offices, the instance has not yet been called to our notice. The Board of Estimate would be surely weakened by the Mayor's resignation, aud his action in resigning would be a sufficient indication he was sacrificing to the dictates of per¬ sonal ambition the cause which has been proclaimed to be the dominant interest of Mr, Gaynor's life. UNTIL the end of the next six weelvs the controversy which has heen raging so long over Subway routes and contracts may well be stilled. No decision of any kind can he taken until the hids for the construction and operation of the Tri-Borough System are opened during the last two weeks in October, and any decision which is subsequently taken must depend upon the results of those hids. New York will then know where it stands in respect to future rapid transit construction. It will learn whether private capital will accept the indeterminate franchise and the distribution of profits, or whether in order to preserve these advantages to the city, it will be necessary to depend on municipal construction. It will learn whether the New Haven Railroad Co. is really seeking an entrance into Manhattan through a Subway, and whether the Broadway-Lexington Ave. route was laid out as an essentially independent line for its benefit. It will learn whether hereafter the city will have one Subway system with